“For the rest of the world, swarming will probably seem like a double-edged sword. Sometimes it may be viewed in a threatening light, as yet another concept emanating from the Americans, seeming to increase their power more than ever. But swarming may also be welcomed by many actors around the world as a way to reshape global competition and assemble social forces to overturn the existing order of world power led by the United States.” Swarming & The Future of Conflict John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt
During the 1999 “Battle in Seattle” World Trade Organization (WTO) protest, an innovative use of communications, in particular Nextel Walkie Talkies, allowed coordinated collective protest and action. This systematic use of communication and free-flowing creation of the protest body tactic would soon be given a name: Swarming.
Swarming, for the purposes of protesting, can be thought of as the technique of quickly massing a large number of individuals from all directions onto a single position in order to attain a specific goal and then quickly dispersing before authorities can form a counter to the protest concentration.
There are several advantages of this decentralized protest method over tactics that current protests may have. One disadvantage of having a central position is that it allows the authorities to plan tactics and methods to a fixed protest location. Another and perhaps more important disadvantage, they can plan the TIME of the counter to the centralized protest. Lets face it, the attention of the mainstream media will probably be most prevalent during times of conflict. If attacks to a protest are planned to occur in the middle of the night, with access to reporters and media blocked off from recording the event more effectively, a large effective tool for the protesters is lost.
Another problem with a known position is the ability of the authorities to subjectively employ “permit” controls and crowd steering which allows for easier Kettling of small groups for arrest.
Swarming gets around all those problems in the protest. There is no centralized protest area so any counter attack cannot be planned in advance. Permits are not even in the picture because the protest may not have even existed 1 hour before. The time that the protest occurs is set by the Swarm, thus allowing for the utmost media exposure and planning and before a successful counter to the protest can be organized, the Swarm disperses.
For example, say a dispersed crowd of 10,000 protesters, randomly position throughout a city, suddenly gets a signal to swarm a particular bank. Within the hour, 10,000 protesters converge on this designated target along with additional news and media coverage. The protest lasts for perhaps 30 minutes, then the group disperses back into the city, perhaps back to their original location. The authorities have barely gotten information about the protest and certainly have not organized enough to contain it. They cannot “clear out the protesters” because they are no longer there. Permits do not have relevance, Kettling is not a possibility, pepper spray and other tactics are taken away from the equation.
That example shows the roughly four different phases in a successful swarm: Locate the target, Converge, Attack, Disperse. For these four phases to work correctly they must be synchronized between a diversity of seemingly disconnected individuals. Therefore, there must be a layer of instantaneous communication between these individuals.
Communication is the most difficult aspect of swarming and a prerequisite that’s difficult to accomplish. Initially, simple messaging and twittering would seem to be the ideal communication medium to use. But that is becoming less and less of a reliable communication method for protest. Cell Phone coverage can suddenly be shut down or re-routed. Wi-Fi connections can be monitored with specialized high-tech equipment, even if huge amounts of data are being sent, so that the usual social media methods can be subverted from its intentions.
Perhaps examples in nature could be looked at to come up with a novel system for using this method of protest. Several methods in the natural world have been studied to gain insight into these highly efficient methods.
Ants have a highly efficient method of using communication by pheromones to produce a “collective intelligence” that seemingly produces order quickly out of chaos. By the use of pheromones and intensity, the task at hand is reenforced with each deposit of pheromone by a successful ant.
The whole key to Swarming is in the decentralized communication that allows a group intelligence to form from the individual without having a central leader or location that can be attacked.
“Ants aren’t smart,” Gordon says. “Ant colonies are.” A colony can solve problems unthinkable for individual ants, such as finding the shortest path to the best food source, allocating workers to different tasks, or defending a territory from neighbors. As individuals, ants might be tiny dummies, but as colonies they respond quickly and effectively to their environment. They do it with something called swarm intelligence.” Peter Miller National Geographic
Already thoughts of Swarming are being used by a group in Portland in support of Occupy Portland. I’m going to continue to follow with interest this group and give updates as to it’s progress.
Wouldn’t it be amazing that Mother Earth has been showing us the way to institute change for the betterment of humanity and perhaps… just perhaps… a way to save the Mother Planet itself?
Swarming & The Future of Conflict
Brilliant. This is info to post EVERYWHERE~! You are always ahead of it, Krell. This is what my nephew, who just read it, calls flash mobbing. The science is unavoidable and the strategy of it is brilliant (already said). Posting at Dennis Trainor’s page. I’ll be talking about this info on Thursday’s “consciousness shift” program on HBM with Nic. Ta.
Although quite similar, the difference between Flash Mobs and Swarming is that Flash Mobs require a centralized “leader” that calls out the location. Fine for the one time protest but with a series of protests, that leader or group can be targeted and detained.
For Swarming theory, think of the picture that I posted of the fish. There isn’t a single fish that’s commanding, nor yelling out orders to turn here or there. No centralized leader but yet the group is able to function as a higher state being. Like the ants and the pheromones, the thought of one becomes reinforced with each localized action till it produces a “orderly body” of the group. A meta command without the commander. It happens so fast that it seems like they act as one.
It can be done with protesters as well with the right communication method. A “meta body” of protest, all acting as one without singling out a chain of command to counter.
Amazing, indeed. Thanks for a great introduction – I hadn’t heard of this technique before, but we’ve already seen examples of effective communication the night of 11/15 when Bloomberg raided Zuccotti park. That night, though, OWS was having to defend, retreat and regroup. Different times ahead, eh?
Yes, different times indeed. It’s like technology on both sides coming together for a huge storm.
A Clash of the Titans…
Very interesting, David! I would suggest it would do us all well to SWARM to our local, county, and state precint caucuses and nominate only progressive candidates, and then SWARM our voting booths to elect them next November 6!
a problem, the initial signal comes from where? and when detected the surprise element is destroyed. infiltration
by the oppressor ants is always an issue.
aysmetrical tactics for sure. the swarm is like water, non confrontational. the idea transcends the primitive
mindset of the brutes employed by the masters. i took note when the occupiers raced down the streets of
new york and the opppressor ants were confused like the british when the americans hid behind trees.
too bad the swarm cannot sense intuitively, telepathecially the needs of the collective at any given time.
who knows this is the new sun. xochitl tonatiuh, and things just ‘may happen’
“..a problem, the initial signal comes from where?”
That is a excellent question and I have to say that I don’t have an answer for that. Plus, as much as this is being studied upon and trust me that it is, there hasn’t been a satisfactory answer to that question as far as I know.
All sorts of models have been studied to solve that question. Again as an example, the ants survive as a colony but the Queen nor any other give a command. But yet they are able to function quite well.
Stigmergy is defined as a mechanism of indirect coordination between agents or actions. The principle is that the trace left in the environment by an action stimulates the performance of a next action, by the same or a different agent. In that way, subsequent actions tend to reinforce and build on each other, leading to the spontaneous emergence of coherent, apparently systematic activity. The lone random ant, finding food, leaves the pheromone scent as he returns to the colony. Other seemingly random traveling ants come across the first pheromone scent, find the food, and REINFORCE the pheromone trail as they go back. This continues to reinforce the actions until an almost straight line is developed, all the while a single command by a “Leader” hasn’t been given. Environmental conditions produce agents and actions by just being the right condition.
My post was really meant to introduce and promote discussion of this fascinating subject and by no means do I have the final “key” to the protest communication problem. I wished I did, it would make a great thesis.
But Swarm Theory is developing into it’s own little branch of applied science and IMHO will become a prevalent part of the future in social protest.
Yes… things just may happen
ah, good: more interest in swarming. if i may intrude, i’d mention taking a look at the sub-section on strategy and swarming, and related readings in the addendum, of the following blog post i did about the occupy movement, at
http://twotheories.blogspot.com/2011/12/what-occupy-protests-mean-timn.html
it also mentions links to some other places where we’ve discussed swarming in thee past.
onward.
Normally I don’t allow linking to external blogs unless it’s relevant to the post subject.
With that being said, David, your link is an EXCELLENT source of references and further information for those that want to take this fascinating subject further.
But considering that you are one of the leading authorities on the subject, this should not surprising.
Thank you for providing this link. If I may quote part of your post…..
““Swarming is a seemingly amorphous, but deliberately structured, co-ordinated, strategic way to strike from all directions at a particular point or points, by means of a sustainable pulsing of force and/or fire, close-in as well as from stand-off positions. This notion of “force and/or fire” may be literal in the case of military or police operations, but metaphorical in the case of NGO activists, who may, for example, be blocking city intersections or emitting volleys of emails and faxes. Swarming will work best — perhaps it will only work — if it is designed mainly around the deployment of myriad, small, dispersed, networked maneuver units. Swarming occurs when the dispersed units of a network of small (and perhaps some large) forces converge on a target from multiple directions. The overall aim is sustainable pulsing — swarm networks must be able to coalesce rapidly and stealthily on a target, then dissever and re-disperse, immediately ready to re-combine for a new pulse.”
If I also may mention, one of your papers (the one that I link at the end of the post) published with the Rand Corporation, inspired me to write this post.
Although I have no where near the technical knowledge and insight as you, I hope that my post at least followed, if somewhat a vague fashion, your general thoughts.
many thanks. much appreciated. about once a month i do a google blog search to see what, if any, references are occuring for past writings. that’s how i came across your post.
yes, you did an apt and interesting write-up.
for additional background and references, see a comment i left here a while back:
http://zenpundit.com/?p=4280#comment-33064
and/or see additional earlier discussion in a post here:
http://twotheories.blogspot.com/2010/03/incidentals-3rd-of-5-apropos-future-of.html
sorry to clutter your blog with more links. i thought i’d already included them in my own post i mentioned above, but somehow i forgot. anyway, onward.
Clutter up your blog?? Are you kidding? You are giving a gold mine of information. I’m enthusiastically trying to absorb as much information on this subject as possible and I must say, your name usually pops up in some way or another in most articles that I’ve read. Considering that you first wrote about the subject 20 years ago at Rand, I’m amazed at your clarity of vision of the future.
I just have so many questions…
What is the difference between decentralized flocking and swarming?
What is the role that swarming will play in UAV or so-called Nanos in the future?
Do you see swarming as a legitimate process of citizen empowerment in the future?
Is the counter to swarming also swarming?
Did you foresee or possibly imagine the role of “social media” and how it’s playing in organizing dissent?
In this post, I gave an example of ants and the use of pheromones. Are you aware of any communication system or process that uses a similar environmental reinforcement to produce “group intelligence”?
Well… feel free to ignore my inquisitiveness here, hopefully not stepping over the boundary of being polite.
But no matter what, I sincerely appreciate your comments given already.
Thank you.
PS Curious as to your opinion of a short fiction post that I wrote concerning social media and networkng.
http://www.roundtree7.com/2011/12/the-me-network/
apology for taking so long to get back here. delays and distractions. your points and questions are all good ones. my quick comments appear below in full caps:
What is the difference between decentralized flocking and swarming?
NOT MUCH FOR ANALYSTS WHO EQUATE SWARMING WITH ANIMAL BEHAVIOR. BUT FOR ARQUILLA AND ME, BIG DIFFERENCE: SWARMING ATTACK MAY NOT EVEN INVOLVE FLOCKING.
What is the role that swarming will play in UAV or so-called Nanos in the future?
LOTS. BEING WORKED ON NOW, I GATHER.
Do you see swarming as a legitimate process of citizen empowerment in the future?
YES, ABSOLUTELY. LEGITIMATE AND IMPORTANT. BUT MAY INVOLVE RACE BETWEEN SURVEILLANCE AND SOUSVEILLANCE CAPABILITIES.
Is the counter to swarming also swarming?
PRETTY MUCH, IN KEEPING WITH OUR OLD APHORISM THAT IT TAKES NETWORKS TO FIGHT NETWORKS. BUT MAY DEPEND ON DEFINITIONS, CUZ I COULD IMAGINE SITUATIONS WHERE THE COUNTER IS OTHERWISE.
In this post, I gave an example of ants and the use of pheromones. Are you aware of any communication system or process that uses a similar environmental reinforcement to produce “group intelligence”?
NO, I’M NOT AWARE OF THIS.
onward!
p.s.: oops, i see you added a p.s. above. i’ll try to take a look sometime. a quick glance indicates that the security-privacy dilemma is “cured” by exalting narcissism displays. clever.
David.. thank you for your responses to my questions. I feel that with each answer, I could ask 10 more questions….
I have discovered your blog and am completely fascinated by your posts.
Also some of your papers that were published at the Rand Corp… incredible!
It seems like you were way ahead of what the future was going to bring.
Right now one in particular that I’m trying to wrap my thoughts around…
IN SEARCH OF HOW SOCIETIES WORK
Tribes—The First and Forever Form.
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/working_papers/2007/RAND_WR433.pdf
Any books forthcoming and if so.. how could I buy one?
my TIMN framework is worth a book, but at the rate i’m getting things done, i doubt it’ll happen. the paper you read on tribes (the t part of timn) was a proto-chapter or two. i have enough laying around to do the n/networks part. but doing chapters on the i/institutions and m/markets parts would be a major endeavor. i’d like to, but i may have to settle for articles and blogposts. we’ll see. in any case, i’m delighted to hear of your interest and appreciation.
right now i’m trying to draft a blog post on john keane’s concept of monitory democracy. so i better get back to it. onward.
Brilliant, per usual. Tangentially related=fractals, a system reaching a new level of order out of seeming chaos, also being used in medicine as a diagnostic in heart rhythms. Jung’s cosmic consiousness? I am wondering about the use of metaphor to convey time or place? A metaphor only known to a small trusted group, & a metaphor that changes & is flexible, but knowable ‘code’. Hard to do without that metaphor being ‘infiltrated’. Most Megas defeated by guerillas. ? use of symbol on one person to indicate a place & time to swarm? Again, needs to be flexible & changeable. The ultimate irony it that some aspect might not or should not be technical at all, ie. writing a message on hand & high fiving to known group? Non permanent tattoos? lol, a tramp stamp? Pre designated changing sites, last minute times. Clothing color or design as a ‘signal’. A posted tarot card that has meaning only to cluster?
Several good points that you bring up, Melissa.
Asymmetrical confrontation is the key and it very well may be non-technical in it’s communication methods. In fact, that may be the only way with the advanced surveillance technology that is available by governments.
The communication method is the key to the swarming method.
Then I’ve been thinking. It’s a given that Occupy has already been infiltrated, & someone mentioned above what do do about infiltration. I have not studied it fully, been have been in ifiltrated left groups. (no…I wasn’t the plant, lol). Have there been enuf studies about plants & infitration to lead to a pattern of infiltatrion that has a pattern that is somewhat predictible? Ants get signal from their own tribe re: out food sources, but only with their own tribe. How to distinguish own tribe from infiltrators? Is there an infiltrator pattern? Used to be the #2 person & one who instigated violence. Maybe they are changing patterns too. If we are not dealing with the limitations of human pherenomes, there are a lot of methods tribes have used. Bees dance for each other. Dance can contain many pieces of ‘disguised data’. There was information hidden in the Capoeira Brazilian slave community. It just ‘looked’ like a dance. could street performers ie, mimes, musicians, convey coded information. Part of the issue besides infiltration of technology, is to keep plants out of the swarm. Big obstacle. As above, I am very intriged with low tech solutions. I need to look into it more, but one of main probs with 9/11 (besides it being created & carred out to create a new enemy to establish an american & European police state) & Nola, was its breakdown of communication because it was not coordinated. This problem has not yet been resolved. Is there a possibliltiy that this inibility to have consistency & reduncancy in first responder communication be used by the left has a gap in the Mega system?
The thing with a leaderless asymmetrical approach is that in can nullify plants and infiltration. Whom does the infiltrator point to if there is no apparent leader, what structures do they attack if there is none. What crowd do the co-ordinate against when there wasn’t one 1 hour ago.
I too am very intrigued by the “non-technical” methods, including some that you have mentioned. Perhaps something as simple as a colored large balloon that is sent on its way to signal? Then like the ants with their reinforcement by pheromones, the balloons reinforce the target decision. May not be a good example but it does illustrate the “group intelligence” without a leader to attack.
But you have to keep in mind that the communication method must be quick to keep the surprise advantage. I can rule out the “Dance Method” if it was coming from me… the only message I would ever convey is… WTF?
uhmmm, David, I was talking about dance as communication, not elegance, so your dance inadequacies don’t disqualify you from swarming. (phew!) I have spent the week reading about swarming since your article, & will continue. You’ve already made clear you don’t have all the answers (why not?, lol). I wanted to lay out some further issues that this brings up for me. (sorry if these are repetitive). One problem is that the Left & Right are both using swarming, with the Right, or those in Power having more technological, military, & tromping on civil liberties ‘toys’ than those on the Left. If there is no ‘centralization’ on the Left (which I actually agree with), then who pays attention to even low tech, flexible ever changing signals? (that may be the best we have since pheremones don’t operate in humans the way they do in colonies). As soon as Left gives any heads up to a planned swarm, even if those ‘heads up’ are not centralized, the Right can pick up on them pretty quickly since they are now knowing the Left is interested in decentralized swarming. And somehow it has to be conveyed what the leaderless, asymmetrical message means to a swarm, or it won’t be understood by the intended faction. How do you do this without messaging that hints at cetralization. Plus, we are talking about infiltration, as if it is ‘after the fact’. Occupy has already been occupied by infiltrators, & for all we know was started or encouraged by infiltrators. If you build it, they will come. Crowd tracking is a great way for the Right to find out links & sources of the Left. So infiltrating, starting, joining, or encouraging Occupy is a great way to learn about similar groups or links to map the new or growing Left, or post modern Left, or whatever you want to call it. So in some way, the swarm has already been tainted. So even if you take a leaderless, asymmetrical approach to swarming, the Right is still going to be one step ahead. They will be’ members of the group that are getting the so called non infiltrated messages. They may seem like your best friend, or the most committed member of the group. That is not a problem with insect colonies or swarms. An individual in that group cannot go solo, not even amongst wolves (rare) or they will die.. So I keep grappling with this. A great tool, that has already been co-opted. Occupy, a possibly great group, that has already been tainted and infiltrated. I think, ‘well as the bottom keeps dropping out, more & more workers & underserved will join the movement.’ But where did that get the wobblies, & the textile workers? I read your post about Twitter, but it almost seemed too late anyway. Twitter can be monitored even if Twitter itself weren’t being such an asshole. Early Christians used the sign of the fish, so I am very intrigued with low tech memes, symbols, & methods as I’ve already been clear. I once was involved with visiting ICE detainees, and with one bilingual prisoner, kept changing language erratically to convey information to him. So I’ve even thought of codes & languages, etc. One simple approach might be to see how infiltrators failed (some did in the 60′s cause they were way too obvious). And what left swarm groups succeeded. Sadly if all that information were pulled together in one place, we would only see that it has gotten us to where we are now. So it is clear who won that game. Might be some connections between extreme left & right arround economic issues, but this relationship got pretty fishy pretty quickly around environmental issues. Anyway, this is simply my mea culpa, mea culpa, because I wish I or a group could find some really elegant answers to this quandry.
What about snail mail? theoretically, at least, lol, cannot be opened by the gov’t.